The author describes the structural values associated within an organization that determines if it will survive or collapse when conditions switch from linear to non-linear. A close look at these structural conditions imply that the church as an organization will have to change or risk failure and collapse.
From the book:
I believe that the church leadership understands this dynamic and are working towards positioning the church for survival. The problem is that time is short and the changes needed will be too drastic for the core older generation members of the church. We can see patterns of these beginning changes manifest with President Nelson’s revelation spree. Will further changes be made to accommodate the gap between church input and output? Time will tell. Currently the gap,is widening as the youth are becoming intolerant to octogenarian old school leadership and radical fundamental beliefs that require significant input and provide cookie cutter repetitive output.“Smith” wrote:Survival or collapse of human organizations ultimately depends not on individual leaders or specific policies but on the structure of the organization. And just like human organisms, human organizational structures have traits that manifest either resiliency or brittleness. Resilient ones adapt; brittle ones collapse. Such manifestation is scale-invariant, meaning it holds equally true for small groups, global corporations and/or states.
Dynamics that favor maintaining the status quo are intrinsic to all organizations. These include: 1) the structural bias for current optimization; 2) incentives for insiders to protect their positions; 3) the high costs and risks of structural changes; 4) decisions based on a past that no longer exists and 5) conserving structures that once conferred an adaptive advantage but are now maladaptive.
Simply put, it’s extremely difficult for organizations to change their structure once it’s been institutionalized. As a result, organizations are suited for gradual, modest changes that leave their processes and outputs intact. When survival depends on radically reorganizing these structures, organizations lack the institutional mechanisms, funding, history and skills required to do so. And
In other words, rapid adaptation that puts insiders at risk is not a natural function of organizations; institutionalized resistance to systemic, risky transformations makes sense when change is gradual and incremental.
As a result, organizations that aren’t specifically designed to adapt very rapidly and take risks—changing their stripes, as it were, on the fly--are designed to fail when conditions switch from linear to non-linear.
President Nelson will become irrelevant as he becomes mentally incapacitated and Oaks will be the last stringent leader driving to deliver the hardline message. After Oaks, the church leadership will fall into softer hands and be forced to make changes in order to stop the bleeding of members and committed youth. Within 10 years the church will have been forced to change.
The question is, can they do it in time to survive?