Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

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Red Ryder
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Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Red Ryder » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:53 pm

I was reading a financial blog and came across a book called “Pathfinding Our Destiny: Preventing the Imminent Fall of Our Democratic Republic” by Charles Hugh Smith. A pdf of the first chapter can be found here: https://www.oftwominds.com/Pathfinding- ... ample2.pdf

The author describes the structural values associated within an organization that determines if it will survive or collapse when conditions switch from linear to non-linear. A close look at these structural conditions imply that the church as an organization will have to change or risk failure and collapse.

From the book:
“Smith” wrote:Survival or collapse of human organizations ultimately depends not on individual leaders or specific policies but on the structure of the organization. And just like human organisms, human organizational structures have traits that manifest either resiliency or brittleness. Resilient ones adapt; brittle ones collapse. Such manifestation is scale-invariant, meaning it holds equally true for small groups, global corporations and/or states.

Dynamics that favor maintaining the status quo are intrinsic to all organizations. These include: 1) the structural bias for current optimization; 2) incentives for insiders to protect their positions; 3) the high costs and risks of structural changes; 4) decisions based on a past that no longer exists and 5) conserving structures that once conferred an adaptive advantage but are now maladaptive.

Simply put, it’s extremely difficult for organizations to change their structure once it’s been institutionalized. As a result, organizations are suited for gradual, modest changes that leave their processes and outputs intact. When survival depends on radically reorganizing these structures, organizations lack the institutional mechanisms, funding, history and skills required to do so. And

In other words, rapid adaptation that puts insiders at risk is not a natural function of organizations; institutionalized resistance to systemic, risky transformations makes sense when change is gradual and incremental.

As a result, organizations that aren’t specifically designed to adapt very rapidly and take risks—changing their stripes, as it were, on the fly--are designed to fail when conditions switch from linear to non-linear.
I believe that the church leadership understands this dynamic and are working towards positioning the church for survival. The problem is that time is short and the changes needed will be too drastic for the core older generation members of the church. We can see patterns of these beginning changes manifest with President Nelson’s revelation spree. Will further changes be made to accommodate the gap between church input and output? Time will tell. Currently the gap,is widening as the youth are becoming intolerant to octogenarian old school leadership and radical fundamental beliefs that require significant input and provide cookie cutter repetitive output.

President Nelson will become irrelevant as he becomes mentally incapacitated and Oaks will be the last stringent leader driving to deliver the hardline message. After Oaks, the church leadership will fall into softer hands and be forced to make changes in order to stop the bleeding of members and committed youth. Within 10 years the church will have been forced to change.

The question is, can they do it in time to survive?
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

Boozer
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Boozer » Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:58 am

"Oaks will be the last stringent leader driving to deliver the hardline message."

What makes you say that? It appears that Bednar will likely make the top and given his age could be there for a while. I think he is pretty much a hardliner as well.

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Corsair
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Corsair » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:43 am

Red Ryder wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:53 pm
President Nelson will become irrelevant as he becomes mentally incapacitated and Oaks will be the last stringent leader driving to deliver the hardline message. After Oaks, the church leadership will fall into softer hands and be forced to make changes in order to stop the bleeding of members and committed youth. Within 10 years the church will have been forced to change.

The question is, can they do it in time to survive?
I listened to a historian on a podcast who made a related point. A year before a revolution, no one could foresee it coming. A year after a revolution, everyone recognizes the hundreds of signs that the revolution was imminent.

We are all surrounded by believing friends and family. Our job will be watching for the changes and the slower cognitive dissonance that believers will experience. It will be like what we have already gone through, but smaller and slower and designed to leave belief and orthopraxy intact. The removal of home teaching and three hour church was portrayed as this breakneak pace of change in the church and high level revelation. I certainly sat in fast and testimony meetings after these announcements listening to devout believers talk about how they were trying to take in these changes, hoping to "keep up" with the pace of revelation. It was portrayed as a challenge to their testimony, but also one that they could manage as a form of virtue signalling.

I do want to be kind to these believers, especially since I was one of them a few years ago. This will be more critical as Nelson passes allowing Oaks, Holland, and Bednar to get the keys to the Holy of Holies. I think it is further support for the idea that indifference is the correct long term attitude towards the institutional church as unbelievers who want to maintain a healthy existence and personal spirituality. We have no idea what the top quorums will decide next. It is simply in our best interest to maintain composure and not rely on the LDS church for spiritual and emotional strength.

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græy
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by græy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:49 am

I found this one interesting...
Optimization can be understood as what the organization is designed to produce or more simply, what the organization produces as output. Just as species develop traits and behaviors that serve their current specialization/optimization, organizations develop structures that serve their current optimization. These include structures for decision-making, collecting information, acquiring inputs, producing outputs, distributing rewards, limiting risks and managing feedback.

The output isn’t limited to the stated primary purpose; it includes a wide range of tangible and intangible secondary outputs. For example, a university’s primary output is the education of its students and the issuance of diplomas. But universities also produce stable employment, and if they have the necessary structures, they may produce research and alumni networks that encourage and support new enterprises. They may also generate intangible output such as prestige.
The church's stated goal (output) is to encourage individual growth to become more Christ-like. But it has been largely failing in that directive for many decades. Strict policies and judgement based on adherence to otherwise trivial rules generates entire generations of people great at checking boxes but bad at thinking/deciding anything of value for themselves.

While this fits in very well with religious symbolism of congregants as sheep and Christ as the shepherd, it does nothing to garner real individual spiritual, psychological, or mental growth.

Further, the symptoms of failed growth are masked for those few who rise through the ranks of leadership because they start to see the "promotion" itself as personal growth even though they, themselves, are still just checking boxes and blindly applying policy 95% of the time.

The intangible output generated by the church is community. It does build ward families and bring people together in ways that provide great support structures to those in need. That alone may be what often keeps people active once they've discovered that they aren't really getting any other benefit from the church. The dark corollary to that output is the binding of families around church doctrine. They lose their support network, their friends, and their families, if they leave the church.
I'm better than dirt... well most dirt. Not that fancy store bought stuff, I can't compete with that... full of nutrients and everything. -Moe Sizlack

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Red Ryder
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Red Ryder » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:02 am

Boozer wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:58 am
"Oaks will be the last stringent leader driving to deliver the hardline message."

What makes you say that? It appears that Bednar will likely make the top and given his age could be there for a while. I think he is pretty much a hardliner as well.
Hey Boozer. Glad to see you here.

I think Oaks is too close to the Prophetic mantle to see the need to make changes and his ego drives his hateful rhetoric. He’s too stubborn to see the world has changed around him and that the usefulness of the church is becoming irrelevant to the general public. Getting called to the FP has heightened his sense of entitlement and boasted his ego. You can see it in his facial expressions and body language.

Ballard and Holland could become a soft voice of reason focused on Christ but who knows what pet peeves they will unleash on.

By the time Bednar’s number gets called out he will have watched the church membership decline significantly as secularism takes hold and the youth continue to be disinterested. I’ve got three nephews who are all falling away from activity and have chosen not to serve missions. All three are from faithful active families. They simply are not interested in putting their life on hold to peddle a religion that seems wacky and crazy for belief in intangible and unprovable things.

Bednar is a smart guy. He comes across as robotic and cold because he is a methodical thinker. His only choice will be to continue to make changes in order to see survival of the church.

We all see him as this big a-hole who will come in and take all the fun out of the church. Thereality is it’s already been stripped out and there’s nothing left. Within 10 years, Bednar will inherit a membership base that has been diluted by the deaths of the baby boomer generation and replaced and propped up by the kids of today who have grown up with a cell phone in their pockets.

They will have to drastically make changes over the next 10 years to survive the dilution effect.
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

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Red Ryder
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Red Ryder » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:31 am

græy wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:49 am
I found this one interesting...
Optimization can be understood as what the organization is designed to produce or more simply, what the organization produces as output. Just as species develop traits and behaviors that serve their current specialization/optimization, organizations develop structures that serve their current optimization. These include structures for decision-making, collecting information, acquiring inputs, producing outputs, distributing rewards, limiting risks and managing feedback.

The output isn’t limited to the stated primary purpose; it includes a wide range of tangible and intangible secondary outputs. For example, a university’s primary output is the education of its students and the issuance of diplomas. But universities also produce stable employment, and if they have the necessary structures, they may produce research and alumni networks that encourage and support new enterprises. They may also generate intangible output such as prestige.
The church's stated goal (output) is to encourage individual growth to become more Christ-like. But it has been largely failing in that directive for many decades. Strict policies and judgement based on adherence to otherwise trivial rules generates entire generations of people great at checking boxes but bad at thinking/deciding anything of value for themselves.

While this fits in very well with religious symbolism of congregants as sheep and Christ as the shepherd, it does nothing to garner real individual spiritual, psychological, or mental growth.

Further, the symptoms of failed growth are masked for those few who rise through the ranks of leadership because they start to see the "promotion" itself as personal growth even though they, themselves, are still just checking boxes and blindly applying policy 95% of the time.

The intangible output generated by the church is community. It does build ward families and bring people together in ways that provide great support structures to those in need. That alone may be what often keeps people active once they've discovered that they aren't really getting any other benefit from the church. The dark corollary to that output is the binding of families around church doctrine. They lose their support network, their friends, and their families, if they leave the church.
Great observations Graey!

It’s too bad the church can’t identify all the bad symptoms like toxic shame, repressed sexuality, judgementalism, prophetic hero worship, and all other bad things Mormon culture creates and eliminate them by changing the narrative.

Could you imagine what the church would look like if it dedicated half the time and energy their spending on the church essays, the face to face fire sides, writing The Saints, and all other things they are doing to shore up the foundation cracks and focused more on solving the bad things that result from blind obedience?
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

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wtfluff
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by wtfluff » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:53 am

Corsair wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:43 am
This will be more critical as Nelson passes allowing Oaks, Holland, and Bednar to get the keys to the Holy of Holies.
Thanks for that giggle Pirate! :mrgreen:


P.S. Giving the keys to a gaudy, mostly empty, useless room in the Polygamy Palace to a different octogenarian will do absolutely nothing to prevent the imminent fall of LD$-Inc.
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

Keep the company of those who seek the truth - run from those who have found it -Václav Havel

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Red Ryder
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Red Ryder » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am

Ha ha ha ha ha!

The Polygamy Palace.....
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Mackman » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am

I dont believe the church will be able to change rapidly enough to survive !!!! The collapse will begin slowly and accelerate as members continue to leave changes will be made but not enough to stop the hemorrhage. Mainstream Christianity will play a role in accelerating the process as it points the finger at the church and tell everyone see it was false all along !!!

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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Corsair » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:56 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:53 am
P.S. Giving the keys to a gaudy, mostly empty, useless room in the Polygamy Palace to a different octogenarian will do absolutely nothing to prevent the imminent fall of LD$-Inc.
Ironically enough, there is a famous book called "The Puzzle Palace" written by James Bamford in 1982. But this book was all about the activities and operations of the National Security Agency in the United States. That is another organization that has its own holy of Holies protecting secular secrets.
Mackman wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:35 am
I dont believe the church will be able to change rapidly enough to survive !!!! The collapse will begin slowly and accelerate as members continue to leave changes will be made but not enough to stop the hemorrhage. Mainstream Christianity will play a role in accelerating the process as it points the finger at the church and tell everyone see it was false all along !!!
I think that the church will be in asymptotic decline for a very long time. They have the money to keep in reasonable operation for at least a century even if the tithing spigot in the Polygamy Palace shuts off. I expect a slow, fractional reduction in membership and sacrament meeting attendance, but the remaining faithful will have frequent assurance that their attendance will be matched with a reward in Heaven.

Business idea: start a strip club in Utah called "The Polygamy Palace"
Last edited by Corsair on Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Linked
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Linked » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:56 pm

Good post RR.

In my view, in the United States the balance of fast moving vs slow moving is maintained by giving the president broad range to quickly enact almost anything, then giving the legislature and judicial branches the power to reverse what the president does more with processes that move more slowly.

In the church the leadership has absolute power to do whatever they want with nothing to check them; they can theoretically react very quickly. But there are a couple things that resist change that I can think of.

1 - The Q15's beliefs - If they truly believe they are led by God then it would be very difficult to go against what you think God wants you to do.
2 - Fallout among the membership - If they righted the ship tomorrow and fully embraced gay marriage and women holding the priesthood and apologized for lying to everyone half the membership would leave.
Red Ryder wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:31 am
Great observations Graey!

It’s too bad the church can’t identify all the bad symptoms like toxic shame, repressed sexuality, judgementalism, prophetic hero worship, and all other bad things Mormon culture creates and eliminate them by changing the narrative.

Could you imagine what the church would look like if it dedicated half the time and energy their spending on the church essays, the face to face fire sides, writing The Saints, and all other things they are doing to shore up the foundation cracks and focused more on solving the bad things that result from blind obedience?
As I read your list of bad symptoms it reminded me of a Sunday School lesson on believing Christ can make you clean, or that we need to be less judgemental. Members do identify many of the symptoms and talk about them and want to fix them. Unfortunately, they blame themselves and other members as the cause rather than recognizing that the root cause is that the way the church is set up encourages these behaviors.
"I would write about life. Every person would be exactly as important as any other. All facts would also be given equal weightiness. Nothing would be left out. Let others bring order to chaos. I would bring chaos to order" - Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by wtfluff » Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:27 pm

Red Ryder wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
Ha ha ha ha ha!

The Polygamy Palace.....
Well, Dearest Cowboy...

My (new) name for the temple was most definitely inspired by your (new) name for the MORmON virtue-signaling suit, so... THANK YOU!
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

Keep the company of those who seek the truth - run from those who have found it -Václav Havel

We are secrets to each other

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Red Ryder
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by Red Ryder » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:50 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:27 pm
Red Ryder wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
Ha ha ha ha ha!

The Polygamy Palace.....
Well, Dearest Cowboy...

My (new) name for the temple was most definitely inspired by your (new) name for the MORmON virtue-signaling suit, so... THANK YOU!
I didn’t coin the “polygamy panty” term you’re referring to. The earliest I could find it on google dates back to a post on Recovery From Mormonism circa 2010?

However, I believe you are the first to use the term “Polygamy Palace” since Brigham Young’s architect was fired for not including mirrors on the ceiling.
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

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moksha
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by moksha » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:28 pm

Corsair wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:43 am
This will be more critical as Nelson passes allowing Oaks, Holland, and Bednar to get the keys to the Holy of Holies.
Are you talking about that space they left for an elevator shaft in the Salt Lake Temple? I know the Holy of Holies in the FLDS Yearning for Zion Temple in Texas was the back bedroom used by Warren Jeffs to consummate his ceremonies. If elevators had not come to Salt Lake, then this extra space could have been used to house the Golden Plates, the Sphere of Destiny, the Holy Grail, the hubcaps from the Hindenburg, the Mets 1969 World Series pennant (handed to Elder Paul H. Dunn by Leo Durocher), and BYU's 1984 NCAA Football trophy.
Last edited by moksha on Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Good faith does not require evidence, but it also does not turn a blind eye to that evidence. Otherwise, it becomes misplaced faith.
-- Moksha

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wtfluff
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Re: Preventing the imenent fall of the church?

Post by wtfluff » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:29 pm

Red Ryder wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:50 pm
wtfluff wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:27 pm
Red Ryder wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:11 am
Ha ha ha ha ha!

The Polygamy Palace.....
Well, Dearest Cowboy...

My (new) name for the temple was most definitely inspired by your (new) name for the MORmON virtue-signaling suit, so... THANK YOU!
I didn’t coin the “polygamy panty” term you’re referring to. The earliest I could find it on google dates back to a post on Recovery From Mormonism circa 2010?

However, I believe you are the first to use the term “Polygamy Palace” since Brigham Young’s architect was fired for not including mirrors on the ceiling.
Well... If you're gonna get all Google-Fu-Official about it... I'm not the "first" to use the actual term "Polygamy Palace," but could be the first to use it in reference to MORmON temples.

That being said: You will always be The Polygamy-Panty-Cowboy to me!

(Mirrors on the ceiling in the Polygamy Palace!!! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: )




Ok, enough with this thread-jack. Has The Corporation of the President™ imploded yet?

No?

Still Waiting...
Image
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

Keep the company of those who seek the truth - run from those who have found it -Václav Havel

We are secrets to each other

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