NOM

As you know for the first time in memory church population statistics were not announced in GC but relegated to the church website and available only after conference. The official stats were the population grew from15,882,000 to 16,118,000. An crease of 236,000. At first blush not too bad.That is a growth rate of 1,48% But last years figures for the year ending 2016 showed growth of 248,000 . So membership growth was at a slower rate than last year and percentage wise was the lowest growth rate with 3 exception since 1855 . The exceptions are 1937,1930 and 1929 So in 2017 growth was numerical smaller than any time in the last approximately 150 years with the exception of 3 outliers l am not a statistical guy but this may let youknow why they tried to hide it.

asa wrote:As you know for the first time in memory church population statistics were not announced in GC but relegated to the church website and available only after conference. The official stats were the population grew from15,882,000 to 16,118,000. An crease of 236,000. At first blush not too bad. But last years figures for the year ending 2016 showed growth of 248,000 which percentage wise was the lowest growth rate in 80 years. So in 2017 growth was numerical smaller than in 2016 and percentage wise much smaller. I am not a statistical guy but this may be the smallest percentage growth in 100 years.Now you know why they tried to hide it.

Have you ever seen a new million member mark hit without it being mentioned? Now that the numbers are not announced in conference it will be easier to quietly stop making them public entirely.


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Compared to last year:

75 new stakes.
Same number of missions.
3 fewer districts.
202 new wards.
2475 fewer new children of record.
6042 fewer convert baptisms.
3897 fewer full-time missionaries.
2477 more church-service missionaries.

Yep the good ship Zion has sprung a leak . Man the bilge pumps. If this were a Fotune 500 company there would be a management change in the near future. Actually given the age of management I think I can expect a change in the near future.

asa wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:08 pm

Yep the good ship Zion has sprung a leak . Man the bilge pumps. If this were a Fotune 500 company there would be a management change in the near future. Actually given the age of management I think I can expect a change in the near future.

Of course, we learned today that God snuffs out apostles to get the right one in charge. Given the deep structural problems with the church's business model, a change in leadership probably won't change much.

Just another simple PR move.

This way the folks that speak at General Conference can keep spewing: "The church is growing!" And at this point, they still won't be lying.

After the "church is growing" statements, believers will say "WOOHOO!" in their head; Some of them will even use a Homer Simpson voice.

After that, the vast majority of believers won't think a bit about any sorts of statistics until someone says "The church is growing" again, and believers will react with a Pavlovian "WOOHOO!" I doubt most believers will even look at the published statistics.

It's only evil apostates, and edgy cafeteria mormons who will actually LOOK at the published statistics, and do the evil calculations that show how dismal the "growth" of the corporation actually is...

Given the way they decided to bury the lede, I'm surprised the numbers aren't worse. Growth is definitely slowing. The decrease in the percentage growth has been pretty consistent the past few years -- around 0.1% decline each year. They've now fallen below 1.5% growth, which is well below what they used to enjoy. Looks like they've faced real declines in the numbers of children of record and convert baptisms.

On the other hand, they're still managing to record some growth, which is actually pretty impressive for a large church these days. Most denominations are seeing pretty noticeable real declines in membership, not just slowing in growth.

I'm not entirely sure I trust their numbers. They seem to have some validity and consistency. I'm not sure how correctly they count resignations. And certainly they still count my family as members, haven't attended in over a decade.

I am surprised, though, that they didn't want to proclaim the passing of another million mark, at 16 million. Maybe they're concerned about presenting the other numbers, that don't look so good, but passing the 16 million mark is a nice round number and a pretty decent accomplishment.

I also noticed they permanently closed two missionary training centers, one in Spain and the other in Santiago, Chile. Odd quote here: "The Church will decide the best use of this space in the future."

Who else would???

104748 deaths, excommunications, and resignations for 2017.
101159 deaths, excommunications, and resignations for 2016.

Looking back at the 2016 statistics, 2017 was actually better for the church. Unless everyone stopped dying and all of those became resignations.

Palerider wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:20 pm

I also noticed they permanently closed two missionary training centers, one in Spain and the other in Santiago, Chile. Odd quote here: "The Church will decide the best use of this space in the future."

Who else would???

Indeed, it isn't like they were going to crowd-source the future of the properties to r/exmormon or something. Of course it'd be the property owners who made the decision concerning the property's future.

What does the church do with the records of people it loses track of? Do they get marked as deceased after their 110th birthday?

Yup. Unless they are told they left the church or died, they assume they are still living members until they hit the age of 110.
Considering the average age of death in the US is 78.7 and world wide it is 71.5, that means that many more people are on the rolls than are actually living.

They claim 16.1M members. Assuming 30% activity, and those members have up to date membership. According to Wikipedia, 57% of the members live outside the US.

So taking that, I am getting about 4 million people who should statistically be dead. That make the actual living membership to be 12,189,603 world wide.

AS to them not being announced in conference, that' not surprising. When the statistics are no longer faith promoting, they will stop pushing them.

A drop in children of record is really a problem for a church that has always relied on insane birth rates to bolster its numbers (and thus its truth claims). Even the TBM's aren't having 8 or 10 kids anymore.

ulmite wrote:104748 deaths, excommunications, and resignations for 2017.
101159 deaths, excommunications, and resignations for 2016.

Looking back at the 2016 statistics, 2017 was actually better for the church. Unless everyone stopped dying and all of those became resignations.

I'm not following. How was 2016 better? I may be misreading something but it appears this indicates things are getting worse for the church.

It's unlikely significantly more people are dying. It's possible the church is just getting better info about deaths. I doubt they're excommunicating a bunch more. That leaves resignations as the most likely significant growth. I'd kind of expect that to be faster growth but many, like me, just walk away and continue to be counted by the church.

That's 3.54% growth in their statistic of decline.

"Close your eyes, for your eyes will only tell the truth,
And the truth isn't what you want to see" (Charles Hart, "The Music of the Night")

Should've mentioned that actually 2016 had a sharper decline in baptisms and births than 2017.