For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

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jfro18
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For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by jfro18 » Wed May 02, 2018 2:14 pm

Might be an odd question, but just curious if everyone who has left is 100% sure it's a lie, and if so... what makes you so sure and/or what makes you wonder if it could be true?

For me I am 100% sure it's false. I always hold out that .00000001% chance I'm missing something, but the Book of Abraham makes it clear as day that Joseph Smith was a con man, and then from there I think the Book of Mormon's use of Deutero-Isaiah along with the KJV errors makes it very clear that he was not getting revelation from his stone.

Beyond that, the changes in the D&C make it clear he was just winging it as he needed to...and from there everything else is meaningless even though I think Brigham Young was an outright monster.

i feel pretty alone with these thoughts since my wife won't talk about them, but just curious what you all think on here.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by wtfluff » Wed May 02, 2018 2:33 pm

jfro18 wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:14 pm
Might be an odd question, but just curious if everyone who has left is 100% sure it's a lie, and if so... what makes you so sure and/or what makes you wonder if it could be true?
I have a hard time stating 100% correctness about anything any more. I was indoctrinated to do that since my first breath, and I was wrong the whole time. I hope I've moved beyond that.

That being said, I believe "the church" is false because of evidence that it is false. It's just that simple.

What makes me wonder if it could be true? I don't wonder if it could be true, but I'm open to evidence which would prove that it is true.

"The church" is a verifiably dishonest organization. It didn't work for me, and didn't teach me anything about living in reality. Even those simple reasons are enough to "prove" to me that it is false, though they are not necessarily verifiable "evidence".
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Reuben » Wed May 02, 2018 2:42 pm

I'd call my belief 99.9999% sure it's false and 0.0001% sure it's true, or something like that. My training in Bayesian statistics makes me unwilling to infer a posterior distribution over a discrete set with a zero-probability outcome. Can't make belief updates if you do that. Besides, I have to admit that it's possible that all the mental gymnastics apologists do are necessary to explain the facts we have.

If it's all true, then besides the standard history and historicity issues, God has a lot of explaining to do regarding how we're meant to find religious truth, and how he let his One True Church!!! get so far from the basic gospel as I read it in the New Testament.

If Mormonism's foundational claims are true, then either God is a trickster tyrant, or the LDS church is one of the unluckiest One True Churches in the universe of possible One True Churches.

The only thing that can make me wonder whether it's true is that we lack a solid secular model for where the Book of Mormon came from. (We have many models, of course.) But I don't wonder all that hard. The mountain of evidence against Joseph being a prophet greatly outweighs this consideration.
Last edited by Reuben on Wed May 02, 2018 2:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by dogbite » Wed May 02, 2018 2:44 pm

All of the standard works are falsifiable well beyond a resonable doubt.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Reuben » Wed May 02, 2018 2:52 pm

Ah, I just realized that you asked about it being a lie. I think it's most likely not a lie. I think Joseph was a pious fraud, in the technical sense that he believed his own fraudulent claims, and that he had a very causal approach to reality. Every human being assigns different weights to the evidence presented by their senses, what they already believe, and what they want to believe.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by GoodBoy » Wed May 02, 2018 2:53 pm

Think of it in terms of probabilities.

What is the probability that God really commanded Joseph Smith to start polygamy and polyandry (but polyandry just for Joseph)? You can't say it is impossible, just improbable. So let's give it a probability of maybe 10%. Obviously this is a wild guess, but if God has the characteristics that we say he does, then we know it is small.

Probability that he told Joseph Smith that he was translating the Book of Mormon that was a record of the native American people, when really it wasn't... again not impossible, just improbable. So again give it another probability of maybe 10%.

What about the Book of Abraham? Maybe 10%.

Probability that God commanded that blacks shouldn't have the priesthood, but changed his mind later. Maybe 5%.

Probability that your answers to your prayers are from God telling you the church is true, while a Muslim's powerful peaceful feelings while praying to Allah are similarly not telling him that Islam is true... Maybe 20%.

Probability that God made people gay and wants them to lead lonely, celibate lives as a "test"... maybe 5%

Probability that God held his one truth back from the world and revealed it only to Joseph Smith... maybe 10%

Probability that God has the power to make it clear what he wants and what his will is for us, but just lets us all struggle... maybe 10%

Probability that you happened to be born and raised with the one truth... exactly 0.1%

And on and on.

Then for the church to be true you have to multiply all of these probabilities (because that is how probabilities work) 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.05 x 0.2 x 0.05 x 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.001 = 0.0000000000005 or 1/200,000,000,000. So not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

Obviously I just came up with my own numbers here, but I also left off a lot of probabilities for things that would also have to be true in order for the church to be true. The whole point is just to show that the probability that the church, as taught to us is so minuscule that it is laughable. It's a terrible bet.

You can choose to have faith if you like, but you can also choose to have faith in pretty much anything, including Islam, Hinduism, new age religions, etc. They have better probabilities of being true than Mormonism, but still tiny.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by IT_Veteran » Wed May 02, 2018 3:36 pm

I became reasonably sure over time that god wasn't actually real, at least the biblical god. His story is really not much different than many of the other myths ascribed to by civilizations over time. I started realizing that we have real, documented evidence of life and death before the events of the garden of Eden. I realized that it's not in Missouri, regardless of whether it was true or not. That our common female ancestor was 200K+ years ago, and many more.

Before I ever realized that Joseph lied, I realized it wasn't true. I really thought that he believed what he was teaching, and I still allow for that. Objectively though, probability says he made it all up.

As for how sure I am? Over 99%. Like many of the other responses, I'm past declaring a knowledge of things I can't know for sure. The church had me doing that for decades, now I'm getting to a point where I'm just okay with not being 100% sure and making my choices based on probabilities. If the Mormon God does exist, he's kind of a jerk anyway and I have no interest in worshiping him anymore.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Hagoth » Wed May 02, 2018 3:42 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:33 pm
What makes me wonder if it could be true? I don't wonder if it could be true, but I'm open to evidence which would prove that it is true.
I'm reminded of the Bill Nye vs. Ken Hamm creationism debate. They were both asked the question "What would make you change your mind?" Hamm answered, "Nothing could make me change my mind." Nye said, "One good piece of evidence."

I have been fooled enough times. I choose to trust evidence over authority. The evidence is a well-paved highway that leads to the LDS church not being true.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Red Ryder » Wed May 02, 2018 3:55 pm

For me, it's not a question of true vs. false anymore. It's a question of authorship and creation.

Did Joseph Smith make it all up and essentially "create" Mormonism? I believe 100% he did. Is it true? Not relevant. Is it false? Not relevant! Does it entertain and make people happy? Sure, but not everyone and that's ok.

Let's look at this in another way.

Did George Lucas create Star Wars? I believe 100% he did. Is it true? Not relevant. Is it false? Not relevant! Does it entertain and make people happy? Sure, but not everyone and that's ok.

Same holds true for fans of Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, the Hobbit, the NBA, the NFL, the NHL, the NRA, activists, stamp collectors, hikers, bikers, Protestants, Methodists, Catholics, Christians, and all other organizations, hobbies, and interests all human beings in the past, present, and future will ever be interested in.

We simply exist and come up with "belief" in our heads to make our existence and survival on this big planet a little easier to cope with. We find groups of people just like us to support our beliefs in light of contradictory evidence.

Nothing in life is "true" with the exception of gravity and death. The most difficult fact we must accept is that we as living humans will die and are merely a spec in time in the great cosmos of the universe!

Based on the end result truth really doesn't matter!
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by wtfluff » Wed May 02, 2018 3:57 pm

Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:52 pm
Ah, I just realized that you asked about it being a lie. I think it's most likely not a lie. I think Joseph was a pious fraud, in the technical sense that he believed his own fraudulent claims, and that he had a very causal approach to reality.
Can you explain this reasoning?

If the fraudster that invented the lie believes the lie, somehow it becomes something other than a lie?
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by IT_Veteran » Wed May 02, 2018 4:25 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:57 pm
Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:52 pm
Ah, I just realized that you asked about it being a lie. I think it's most likely not a lie. I think Joseph was a pious fraud, in the technical sense that he believed his own fraudulent claims, and that he had a very causal approach to reality.
Can you explain this reasoning?

If the fraudster that invented the lie believes the lie, somehow it becomes something other than a lie?
If he believed it, it's a delusion rather than a lie.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by 2bizE » Wed May 02, 2018 4:34 pm

Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:42 pm
I'd call my belief 99.9999% sure it's false and 0.0001% sure it's true, or something like that. My training in Bayesian statistics makes me unwilling to infer a posterior distribution over a discrete set with a zero-probability outcome. Can't make belief updates if you do that. Besides, I have to admit that it's possible that all the mental gymnastics apologists do are necessary to explain the facts we have.

If it's all true, then besides the standard history and historicity issues, God has a lot of explaining to do regarding how we're meant to find religious truth, and how he let his One True Church!!! get so far from the basic gospel as I read it in the New Testament.

If Mormonism's foundational claims are true, then either God is a trickster tyrant, or the LDS church is one of the unluckiest One True Churches in the universe of possible One True Churches.

The only thing that can make me wonder whether it's true is that we lack a solid secular model for where the Book of Mormon came from. (We have many models, of course.) But I don't wonder all that hard. The mountain of evidence against Joseph being a prophet greatly outweighs this consideration.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by asa » Wed May 02, 2018 5:06 pm

Your question does not cover all of the logical possibilities. For instance the old distinction between the gospel and the institutional church while rarely mentioned theses days is an important distinction for some . It is possible for one to be "true' and the other to be "false". i am reasonably certain that there are thousands that believe in the gospel ( ie the basic narrative of the salvific mission of Jesus Christ , the fundamental truth of the restoration and the historicity of the Book of Mormon ) but consider much or all of the modern institutional church to be false or at least full of lies. It is logically possible for a portion of the story to be true while the bulk of it is false. Finally it seems to me that the larger question isn't whether it is true or false. The larger question is is it fulfilling its fundamental purpose to connect us to the divine in this life ? If if can't or doesn't then why bother? We might as well stay home ,watch TV and drink beer
Last edited by asa on Wed May 02, 2018 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Reuben » Wed May 02, 2018 5:08 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:57 pm
Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:52 pm
Ah, I just realized that you asked about it being a lie. I think it's most likely not a lie. I think Joseph was a pious fraud, in the technical sense that he believed his own fraudulent claims, and that he had a very causal approach to reality.
Can you explain this reasoning?

If the fraudster that invented the lie believes the lie, somehow it becomes something other than a lie?
I distinguish between unintentional and intentional deception. We unintentionally deceive others all the time by unintentionally deceiving ourselves first.

It's so built-in that we don't notice. Our visual systems fill in the blank spot where the optic nerve attaches and guess colors in the peripheral of the visual field, but we think it's all real. We think our memories are like video or audio files, but each memory is mostly reconstructed at recall, and is changed to fit our current beliefs and re-stored with modifications. Every object we see, every label or relationship we infer, every decision we make (especially about which evidence to take in), every memory we store, every memory we recall, every belief we form... absolutely everything that happens in our brains is heavily influenced by what motivates us, and this is done without our awareness. We are self-deceiving to the core.

Some of us do it more than others. I think Joseph was a champ at it. He wanted to be a seer, so his brain figured out a way to believe that he was. He didn't lie because to him, his falsehoods were the truth.

Everyone here has self-deceived with regards to the church. How many times did we see the counterevidence and resist its implications? We were highly motivated to ignore it or explain it away. If after that we said, "I know it's true," we deceived someone else, unintentionally.
Learn to doubt the stories you tell about yourselves and your adversaries.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by jfro18 » Wed May 02, 2018 6:33 pm

asa wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 5:06 pm
Your question does not cover all of the logical possibilities. For instance the old distinction between the gospel and the institutional church while rarely mentioned theses days is an important distinction for some . It is possible for one to be "true' and the other to be "false". i am reasonably certain that there are thousands that believe in the gospel ( ie the basic narrative of the salvific mission of Jesus Christ , the fundamental truth of the restoration and the historicity of the Book of Mormon ) but consider much or all of the modern institutional church to be false or at least full of lies. It is logically possible for a portion of the story to be true while the bulk of it is false. Finally it seems to me that the larger question isn't whether it is true or false. The larger question is is it fulfilling its fundamental purpose to connect us to the divine in this life ? If if can't or doesn't then why bother? We might as well stay home ,watch TV and drink beer
I kind of get this - clearly there are some prominent church historians that don't believe a lot of what Joseph Smith claims, but they still remain a part of the church anyway.

I have a really hard time with that, mostly because at that point you could find a more traditional Christian church and get the same basic doctrine without all of the extreme stuff like polygamy, temple stuff, priesthood claims, etc.

But you're right - that is another option to the puzzle here.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Palerider » Wed May 02, 2018 6:41 pm

I began being suspicious when I read a couple of chapters from No Man Knows My History. The rock in the hat was troubling news to me.

The more un-correlated material I read the worse it got. The suppressed history is devastating. What conclusively convinced me was the thought/question that, if the church is wrong what is the true meaning of all of those proof scriptures in the Bible?

As many here know I still put a lot of faith in the Biblical scriptures even though parts of the OT might be symbolic or allegorical in nature.

So essentially, I began an in-depth study of many if not all of the scriptures pointing towards the "restoration" of Israel in the latter days. This took a couple of years using both Hebrew and Christian commentaries from a variety of writers and view points.

Without going into a great amount of detail, the upshot of my studies was that:

1. All of the restoration scriptures have quite reasonable interpretations that actually do not support the LDS perspective.

2. There is no indication that a people must be "prepared" in an organization prior to the Second Coming.

3. It isn't necessarily an incorrect proposition that God would allow His children to seek truth and righteousness outside of it being found only in the form of an organized church. Even the LDS church acknowledges this as the way things were during the entire middle ages for nearly 2000 years. It still continues today.

4. The "kingdom of God" survives here on earth as stated in Revelations in a "hidden" or amorphous form. It (Israel) will only be completely restored in it's glory when the Savior returns.

5. There is no indication of any Temple worship among the gentile Christian nations before the Second Coming. Possibly some among the Jews themselves shortly before Christ's coming.

There is much more but suffice it to say, the Bible scriptures regarding the last days have very good and reasonable, logical explanations that have the ring of truth without a Mormon interpretation being forced upon them.

This makes me about 99% sure the church is bogus. As others have said, I have to stay open to truth no matter where it comes from, but at this point the church fails my recommend interview pretty miserably.
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Mad Jax » Wed May 02, 2018 7:12 pm

I'm on Dawkins' 6/7 scale of certainty. I won't rule out any real possibility, but the idea of the existence of any supernatural being existing despite the findings of modern science is beyond remote.
Free will is a golden thread flowing through the matrix of fixed events.

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by wtfluff » Wed May 02, 2018 7:13 pm

IT_Veteran wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 4:25 pm
If he believed it, it's a delusion rather than a lie.
Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 5:08 pm
I distinguish between unintentional and intentional deception. We unintentionally deceive others all the time by unintentionally deceiving ourselves first.

It's so built-in that we don't notice. Our visual systems fill in the blank spot where the optic nerve attaches and guess colors in the peripheral of the visual field, but we think it's all real. We think our memories are like video or audio files, but each memory is mostly reconstructed at recall, and is changed to fit our current beliefs and re-stored with modifications. Every object we see, every label or relationship we infer, every decision we make (especially about which evidence to take in), every memory we store, every memory we recall, every belief we form... absolutely everything that happens in our brains is heavily influenced by what motivates us, and this is done without our awareness. We are self-deceiving to the core.

Some of us do it more than others. I think Joseph was a champ at it. He wanted to be a seer, so his brain figured out a way to believe that he was. He didn't lie because to him, his falsehoods were the truth.

Everyone here has self-deceived with regards to the church. How many times did we see the counterevidence and resist its implications? We were highly motivated to ignore it or explain it away. If after that we said, "I know it's true," we deceived someone else, unintentionally.
Lie... Fraud... Pious Fraud... Delusion... Deception... Unintentional Deception... Intentional Deception... Self Decpetion... Just. Plain. Old. Deception...

No matter how much we toss around different wording or semantics, it doesn't change the evidence: The church is not what it claims to be. It never has been. Whether Joseph was deluded, and every "prophet" since Joe, right up to old Russel continue to be deluded, the church is still not what it claims to be, and it cannot live up to any of it's grand and wonderful promises.
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by Arcturus » Wed May 02, 2018 7:19 pm

Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:42 pm
I'd call my belief 99.9999% sure it's false and 0.0001% sure it's true, or something like that. My training in Bayesian statistics makes me unwilling to infer a posterior distribution over a discrete set with a zero-probability outcome. Can't make belief updates if you do that.
:lol: Love it!
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Re: For those who stopped believing, how *sure* are you that the church is a lie and what makes you so sure?

Post by IT_Veteran » Wed May 02, 2018 7:34 pm

wtfluff wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 7:13 pm
IT_Veteran wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 4:25 pm
If he believed it, it's a delusion rather than a lie.
Reuben wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 5:08 pm
I distinguish between unintentional and intentional deception. We unintentionally deceive others all the time by unintentionally deceiving ourselves first.

It's so built-in that we don't notice. Our visual systems fill in the blank spot where the optic nerve attaches and guess colors in the peripheral of the visual field, but we think it's all real. We think our memories are like video or audio files, but each memory is mostly reconstructed at recall, and is changed to fit our current beliefs and re-stored with modifications. Every object we see, every label or relationship we infer, every decision we make (especially about which evidence to take in), every memory we store, every memory we recall, every belief we form... absolutely everything that happens in our brains is heavily influenced by what motivates us, and this is done without our awareness. We are self-deceiving to the core.

Some of us do it more than others. I think Joseph was a champ at it. He wanted to be a seer, so his brain figured out a way to believe that he was. He didn't lie because to him, his falsehoods were the truth.

Everyone here has self-deceived with regards to the church. How many times did we see the counterevidence and resist its implications? We were highly motivated to ignore it or explain it away. If after that we said, "I know it's true," we deceived someone else, unintentionally.
Lie... Fraud... Pious Fraud... Delusion... Deception... Unintentional Deception... Intentional Deception... Self Decpetion... Just. Plain. Old. Deception...

No matter how much we toss around different wording or semantics, it doesn't change the evidence: The church is not what it claims to be. It never has been. Whether Joseph was deluded, and every "prophet" since Joe, right up to old Russel continue to be deluded, the church is still not what it claims to be, and it cannot live up to any of it's grand and wonderful promises.
I’d never disagree with that.

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