Stagnant Numbers

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Rob4Hope
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Stagnant Numbers

Post by Rob4Hope » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:44 pm

https://religionnews.com/2018/04/13/mor ... n-the-u-s/

This has been discussed before. What they don't do a very good job of with these numbers is talk about the inactivity of those who are fresh converts. Isn't the retention rate of less than 50%? Does anyone know what the numbers are of activity retention of new converts?

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RubinHighlander
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by RubinHighlander » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:10 pm

Martinich noted a particular drop in California, which had “50 or 60” wards and branches discontinued in 2017, due to congregations “getting smaller and smaller” that have been consolidated. He said this has happened throughout the state and is not isolated to any one particular area.

While “the Church in California is still strong, with 7 temples and 20 missions, membership hasn’t noticeably increased in 25 years even though the population of California has increased.”
Would be interesting to figure out if there was a dominant cause to the CA drop, like all the fallout from prop 8.
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Palerider
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Palerider » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:28 pm

To judge church strength without acknowledging the reality of inactivity is pretty disingenuous.

Anytime the Australian census shows approx. 60,000 identifying as Mormon while church records show over 100,000 you've got a pretty big discrepancy.

Church records of membership become useless in gauging church strength. They do however allow church leadership to continue the farce. That's also probably why they make name removal such a pain in the arse. Who wants to go through all that crap to get loose of the tar baby?
Last edited by Palerider on Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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alas
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by alas » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm

RubinHighlander wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:10 pm
Martinich noted a particular drop in California, which had “50 or 60” wards and branches discontinued in 2017, due to congregations “getting smaller and smaller” that have been consolidated. He said this has happened throughout the state and is not isolated to any one particular area.

While “the Church in California is still strong, with 7 temples and 20 missions, membership hasn’t noticeably increased in 25 years even though the population of California has increased.”
Would be interesting to figure out if there was a dominant cause to the CA drop, like all the fallout from prop 8.
If what I have heard in our southern Ut club is correct, people like Mormons are moving out of California because of the liberal political climate. When we have new member of the club, about 3-5 couples a month, those coming from California are about 1/2 and they frequently give “escaping liberal politics” as their reason for moving.

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jfro18
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by jfro18 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:47 pm

The church thrives on only being transparent when it suits them - whether that's because they have no other choice (Gospel Topics essays) or when it fits a narrative (Membership numbers, donation amounts, etc).

We all know the church is well aware of what their active rate is, yet they will *never* release that info. It may leak someday and we've gotten some glimpses of that, but the church is always going to paint the best picture they can - you can even see that in how they report missionary #s.

Some estimates are that only about 30-35% of members are active. I'm still counted as a member even though I haven't attended in years... most who leave just stop going as opposed to going through the formality of a resignation.

I wish we had more info to work with -- hopefully someone will leak it to MormonLeaks or something so we can have a more concrete foundation to work from.

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RubinHighlander
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by RubinHighlander » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:57 pm

alas wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm
RubinHighlander wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:10 pm
Martinich noted a particular drop in California, which had “50 or 60” wards and branches discontinued in 2017, due to congregations “getting smaller and smaller” that have been consolidated. He said this has happened throughout the state and is not isolated to any one particular area.

While “the Church in California is still strong, with 7 temples and 20 missions, membership hasn’t noticeably increased in 25 years even though the population of California has increased.”
Would be interesting to figure out if there was a dominant cause to the CA drop, like all the fallout from prop 8.
If what I have heard in our southern Ut club is correct, people like Mormons are moving out of California because of the liberal political climate. When we have new member of the club, about 3-5 couples a month, those coming from California are about 1/2 and they frequently give “escaping liberal politics” as their reason for moving.
So it was fallout but not necessarily resignations, but migrations. Do you or any other NOMs find that TBMs that move back to Utah have a difficult time here? I just had a TBM friend move back to Utah from Colorado after being out of the state for over 20 years; they only last a year here and just don't like it for many reasons. In a nutshell they out grew Utah socially and piously. They are upper class white people with self righteous attitudes. My friend was clearly unhappy and only ever complained about his situation with selling his multi-million dollar house and how unhappy his wife was because there's no decent shopping here in Utah; it's above first world problems here. As much as he loved being minutes away from awesome skiing, they moved back to Denver. I've seen the attitude of non-Utah TBMs toward Utah TBMs several times before. I can't imagine its much different with many California TBMs.
“Sir,' I said to the universe, 'I exist.' 'That,' said the universe, 'creates no sense of obligation in me whatsoever.”
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alas
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by alas » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:34 pm

RubinHighlander wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:57 pm
alas wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm
RubinHighlander wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:10 pm


Would be interesting to figure out if there was a dominant cause to the CA drop, like all the fallout from prop 8.
If what I have heard in our southern Ut club is correct, people like Mormons are moving out of California because of the liberal political climate. When we have new member of the club, about 3-5 couples a month, those coming from California are about 1/2 and they frequently give “escaping liberal politics” as their reason for moving.
So it was fallout but not necessarily resignations, but migrations. Do you or any other NOMs find that TBMs that move back to Utah have a difficult time here? I just had a TBM friend move back to Utah from Colorado after being out of the state for over 20 years; they only last a year here and just don't like it for many reasons. In a nutshell they out grew Utah socially and piously. They are upper class white people with self righteous attitudes. My friend was clearly unhappy and only ever complained about his situation with selling his multi-million dollar house and how unhappy his wife was because there's no decent shopping here in Utah; it's above first world problems here. As much as he loved being minutes away from awesome skiing, they moved back to Denver. I've seen the attitude of non-Utah TBMs toward Utah TBMs several times before. I can't imagine its much different with many California TBMs.

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Culper Jr. » Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:37 pm

jfro18 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:47 pm
We all know the church is well aware of what their active rate is, yet they will *never* release that info.
Oh yeah, the church is RIDICULOUSLY aware of what the activity rate is.. I was just looking at the quarterly report for our ward. They also have KPI graphs tracking attendance, activity rates, number of recommend holders, even number of people submitting names to the temple. Our ward is pretty typical of a U.S. non-morridor ward. So for a couple of examples, our sacrament meeting attendance is 26%. 55% of endowed members have a recommend. 47% ministering. That's around the average, maybe a little on the low side for what people usually guess the general church activity rate is.

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Hagoth
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Hagoth » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:30 am

alas wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm
...hey frequently give “escaping liberal politics” as their reason for moving.
Oh great, Utah is getting more conservative and more Mormon.
“The easy confidence with which I know another man's religion is folly teaches me to suspect that my own is also.” -Mark Twain

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Rob4Hope » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:41 am

Culper Jr. wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:37 pm
jfro18 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:47 pm
We all know the church is well aware of what their active rate is, yet they will *never* release that info.
Oh yeah, the church is RIDICULOUSLY aware of what the activity rate is.. I was just looking at the quarterly report for our ward. They also have KPI graphs tracking attendance, activity rates, number of recommend holders, even number of people submitting names to the temple. Our ward is pretty typical of a U.S. non-morridor ward. So for a couple of examples, our sacrament meeting attendance is 26%. 55% of endowed members have a recommend. 47% ministering. That's around the average, maybe a little on the low side for what people usually guess the general church activity rate is.
You have KPI rates calculated by the attendance/financial software the church uses for the clerks?

That is hilariously funny, in a bad way, to me. The church is getting more tech-savvy (though as I remember they trailed the curve by like 20 years), and they are tracking things like this at the local level?

Question: how is the "number of people submitting names to the temple" calculated? I assume the temple recommends still have bar-codes,...or when someone submits a name, do they cross-reference a name with a membership record? How is that calculated and tied to a unit code?

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by wtfluff » Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:53 am

Hagoth wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:30 am
alas wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:39 pm
...hey frequently give “escaping liberal politics” as their reason for moving.
Oh great, Utah is getting more conservative and more Mormon.
Um... I want to type: "This has always been so."

But: Wasn't there an article recently that said that Salt Lake County is moving the opposite way? So I guess "some parts" of Utah are getting more conservative, and more MORmON, but not all.
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

Keep the company of those who seek the truth - run from those who have found it -Václav Havel

Brilliant.

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Culper Jr.
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Culper Jr. » Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:18 pm

Rob4Hope wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:41 am
Question: how is the "number of people submitting names to the temple" calculated? I assume the temple recommends still have bar-codes,...or when someone submits a name, do they cross-reference a name with a membership record? How is that calculated and tied to a unit code?
To submit names now you go through family search, which uses your LDS.org (or whatever it is now) account sign in, which is tied to your membership number. Now when you submit names, you can find them on your phone with an app, submit, and then take the phone into the office at the temple and print the cards. Your submission produces a bar code that the temple just scans from the phone, but it's all tied back to your account.

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Rob4Hope » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:14 pm

Culper Jr. wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:18 pm
Rob4Hope wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:41 am
Question: how is the "number of people submitting names to the temple" calculated? I assume the temple recommends still have bar-codes,...or when someone submits a name, do they cross-reference a name with a membership record? How is that calculated and tied to a unit code?
To submit names now you go through family search, which uses your LDS.org (or whatever it is now) account sign in, which is tied to your membership number. Now when you submit names, you can find them on your phone with an app, submit, and then take the phone into the office at the temple and print the cards. Your submission produces a bar code that the temple just scans from the phone, but it's all tied back to your account.
Church is getting more sophisticated all the time. I'm surprised, however, that they let those numbers get out to local units--even if they are just local. Have you gotten any letters to leadership in your ward where they are asking wards to increase name submission?

I've always wondered about name submission since there are many names that consistently (at least in the past) get submitted multiple times.

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Culper Jr. » Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:17 pm

Rob4Hope wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:14 pm
Have you gotten any letters to leadership in your ward where they are asking wards to increase name submission?
There is a huge push right now to increase name submission coming from at least above the stake level, especially with the youth and new members. It's kind of this "chicken or the egg" argument where the church sees that members that attend the temple are more active, so they think that if they drag more members to the temple by hook or by crook, they will be more active. Where I see it the other way as temple attendance doesn't make you more active necessarily, it's just one of the things that the most "church broke" members happen to do. They also see this as a way to keep the youth from leaving; for them to have a meaningful temple experience. They need names for baptisms especially, and the "kids are great with computers!", so they have been pushing for all of the youth to sign up for lds.org/family search accounts, downloading the app, and using youth and Sunday school time to train them to look for names. Of course for most kids it's as boring as watching paint dry, so very few stay all that interested.

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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by moksha » Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:25 am

One figure that is never given but is rather important is the average number of people attending Sunday services per week.
Good faith does not require evidence, but it also does not turn a blind eye to that evidence. Otherwise, it becomes misplaced faith.
-- Moksha

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Hagoth
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by Hagoth » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:03 am

wtfluff wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:53 am
But: Wasn't there an article recently that said that Salt Lake County is moving the opposite way? So I guess "some parts" of Utah are getting more conservative, and more MORmON, but not all.
The fact that so many of these people are moving to St. George suggests that they are retirees coming to Utah to live out their final days in the warm, comfy blanket of white, conservative air-conditioned Zion, possibly scoping out land in Dixie for cotton fields and servants quarters. Little do they know that the dark lord Bill Reel is lurking amongst them, waiting to pounce.
“The easy confidence with which I know another man's religion is folly teaches me to suspect that my own is also.” -Mark Twain

Jesus: "The Kingdom of God is within you." The Buddha: "Be your own light."

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alas
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by alas » Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:19 am

Hagoth wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:03 am
wtfluff wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:53 am
But: Wasn't there an article recently that said that Salt Lake County is moving the opposite way? So I guess "some parts" of Utah are getting more conservative, and more MORmON, but not all.
The fact that so many of these people are moving to St. George suggests that they are retirees coming to Utah to live out their final days in the warm, comfy blanket of white, conservative air-conditioned Zion, possibly scoping out land in Dixie for cotton fields and servants quarters. Little do they know that the dark lord Bill Reel is lurking amongst them, waiting to pounce.
I had a post above where I quoted and then timed out and had to log in again and it posted without what I had written and I only noticed a few days later that it didn’t post. But anyway, I tried to say that yes, some people move in for the conservative politics. They think they are escaping liberal California, but we have others that move here to retire who are nonMormon and quite liberal. So, I don’t think over all, Utah is getting more conservative.

But the other part of my comment that didn’t post was about how people react after moving here. Some are shocked by “Utah Mormons” and they tend to be “moved here” by their company and didn’t necessarily choose Utah. I knew a lot of military folk who saw many areas and what wards were like all over the world and they didn’t like the hypocrisy and culture of Utah. But others wanted to “live among the saints” and wanted to come to Utah and they tend to make Utah culture of superficial judgementalism worse.

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alas
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Re: Stagnant Numbers

Post by alas » Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:37 am

Culper Jr. wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:17 pm
Rob4Hope wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:14 pm
Have you gotten any letters to leadership in your ward where they are asking wards to increase name submission?
There is a huge push right now to increase name submission coming from at least above the stake level, especially with the youth and new members. It's kind of this "chicken or the egg" argument where the church sees that members that attend the temple are more active, so they think that if they drag more members to the temple by hook or by crook, they will be more active. Where I see it the other way as temple attendance doesn't make you more active necessarily, it's just one of the things that the most "church broke" members happen to do. They also see this as a way to keep the youth from leaving; for them to have a meaningful temple experience. They need names for baptisms especially, and the "kids are great with computers!", so they have been pushing for all of the youth to sign up for lds.org/family search accounts, downloading the app, and using youth and Sunday school time to train them to look for names. Of course for most kids it's as boring as watching paint dry, so very few stay all that interested.
My autistic grandson loves it. But then he is a strange kid.

But I so agree that it is not the temple that makes or keeps people active. In fact it just just the opposite in that a first temple experience drives many out of the church. But the very “church broke” people do attend the temple. And they claim the emperor’s clothing are beautiful. But I think the temple is kind of like the spurs used to break a horse, painful but once you choke the pain down and obey, you are broke. If a person can get over the cog dis of the WTF temple experience, then they are devoted Mormons. Not because it is good, but because once you choke it down you have sacrificed your integrity to he church and there is no going back. But many people never choke it down. Like tRump supporting evangelicals and Mormons. They don’t support him because he is honest. They support him because once they choked down his dishonesty they were tRump broke and since they sacrificed their integrity to support a “not democrat” there is no going back. But once you sacrifice your integrity and start believing that bad is good, to actually SEE what you have done is too painful so bad continues to be seen as good and the church puts more and more and more emphasis on its new “good.”

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