Stock Market, economy, and recession?

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Red Ryder
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Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Red Ryder » Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:00 pm

What does everyone think about the economy and chances of a downturn or recession?

I believe the rich and powerful are manipulating market forces before the 2020 election.

The 10+ year bull run can’t last forever!
Those who do not move do not notice their chains. —Rosa Luxemburg

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moksha
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by moksha » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:46 pm

The stock market always collapses when regulations are lax. That is because the greed in capitalism can never restrain itself without an outside force ensuring restraint. The collapse happens much the same way as when hotels are put on Park Place and Boardwalk in a monopoly game. It is in everyone's best interest when the game is sustained and everyone has a chance to play.
Good faith does not require evidence, but it also does not turn a blind eye to that evidence. Otherwise, it becomes misplaced faith.
-- Moksha

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jfro18
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by jfro18 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:17 am

I think the chances are rising every day that tensions with trade escalate.

And I work with bringing products over from China, and the last few months the rates have kept dropping because demand is so low... but part of that is so many companies rushed inventory over early in the year to avoid tariffs, so hard to say if it's a slowdown now or just catching up.

I think Trump will continue to push policies that force the Federal Reserve to cut rates through the election so that the economy can be primed as much as possible to hang on through the election, but I also think as you mentioned this expansion is already the longest in history and at some point is going to contract.

But then again the warning signs have been flashing for years and central banks have pumped so many trillions into the markets that it's hard to say if they'd ever let it naturally fall again.

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RubinHighlander
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by RubinHighlander » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:45 am

From my view I worry about the national debt and debt across the country. We didn't build this city on rock and roll we built it on borrowed $$$ and it seems like a thin sheet of ice. There's no affordable housing for kids getting out of college with tons of debt and now the globe is more interdependent that ever before. The last tool the feds have that impacts the economy is interest rates; but look how long they have abused that one. Now rates have been so low for so long that they can't afford to raise them and risk big inflation. The wage/cost of living gap continues to grow. I'm sure there are many more forces at work behind the scenes, it seems harder for average guys like me to see any clarity in where it's going and I'm sure that's intentional. All I can do is keep my debt low and have enough in savings to ride out the storm. I was unemployed for over a year in the last recession and I feel like I'm still recovering.
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jfro18
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by jfro18 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:55 am

RubinHighlander wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:45 am
From my view I worry about the national debt and debt across the country. We didn't build this city on rock and roll we built it on borrowed $$$ and it seems like a thin sheet of ice.
This is a huge problem and one that is interesting because many economists out there feel this is a GOOD thing. The idea is that debt growing means the economy is growing... but then again the interest payments alone from the US is out of control.

And that doesn't take into account the record credit card, student loan, auto loan debt that's been happening in recent years not to mention that delinquencies are slowly rising as well.

And *that* doesn't even get into the rest of the world's debt, which in some cases is worse than us (looking at you, China).
RubinHighlander wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:45 am
it seems harder for average guys like me to see any clarity in where it's going and I'm sure that's intentional. All I can do is keep my debt low and have enough in savings to ride out the storm. I was unemployed for over a year in the last recession and I feel like I'm still recovering.
Yeah I think from following politics the last ~15 years super close it seems like so much of the clarity is just swept up in policy which means there's not a lot of certainty.

I quit my last job to work for myself in 2007... and I had some steady work from two clients which evaporated at end of 2008... was not a great time but thankfully I found other things to do for work that picked up the slack.

The charts that show the growth in wealth/income/etc from the end of the recession to now are striking when you compare lower/middle/upper classes. It certainly will be a central point in the 2020 election for sure.

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Corsair
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Corsair » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:18 am

Red Ryder wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:00 pm
What does everyone think about the economy and chances of a downturn or recession?

I believe the rich and powerful are manipulating market forces before the 2020 election.

The 10+ year bull run can’t last forever!
I really don't like conspiracy theories, but this is one that I would tend to believe. Let's assume you are correct and we can all expect a recession in 2021. What should we be doing in the next year and half to prepare for such a down turn?

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jfro18
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by jfro18 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:36 pm

Corsair wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:18 am

I really don't like conspiracy theories, but this is one that I would tend to believe. Let's assume you are correct and we can all expect a recession in 2021. What should we be doing in the next year and half to prepare for such a down turn?
I guess it all depends on where you are in life?

Like if you're referring to retirement plans... you probably wouldn't do much unless you're retiring in the next 5-10 years. You could talk to your advisor and maybe get it less aggressive but from the very little I know it doesn't make a ton of difference unless you're setup in a super aggressive or conservative plan. But I'm not a financial advisor so it's mostly from the little I've read over the years.

Otherwise probably just try to save up an emergency fund in case you were to lose a job, but I would imagine the next downturn will not be like the financial crisis... but then again a full blown trade war can really make matters worse.

But then again no one knows. I have a friend I met through going to concerts who is a president of a large bank who told me that he sold his house because he's pretty certain home values are going to go south soon, but he's got to be worth tens of millions so he can afford to do that. :lol:

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Linked
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Linked » Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:53 pm

Looks like we have an inverted yield curve (or more info), which is a pretty big indicator of a recession looming. Basically, people are pulling their money from stocks and putting them in long term bonds. This drives the price of long term bonds down, even below the price of short term bonds, which is counter-intuitive (short term bonds usually give a lower interest than long term bonds). The yield inversion suggests that investors expect interest rates to be even lower in the short term due to governments lowering interest rates to spur the economy, so when the 2 year bond is over they won't be able to get as high a yield then as they could with the low priced long term bonds today.

The trade war is certainly putting pressure on the economy. But the housing market is still pretty hot where I am.
RubinHighlander wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:45 am
There's no affordable housing for kids getting out of college with tons of debt and now the globe is more interdependent that ever before.
I just had a chat with a friend about student loan debt that has me a bit raw. Both of our families had student loan debt over $100k due to graduate school. DW and I paid her loans off as DINKs (Dual Income No Kids), then I pulled my 401k to pay off my graduate school debt. We have similar incomes. He owes tens of thousands more than when he started as he has been paying minimums in hopes of getting his loans forgiven after 20 years. He goes on expensive trips every year and is quite free with his spending. We discussed the student loan forgiveness plans being bandied about by the democratic presidential candidates. I personally think the student loan debt is approaching crisis-levels and will affect the economy; it needs to be dealt with. He agrees. But I couldn't help but be a little turnt off by his living it up while I paid mine off, and then hoping the economic situation will rescue him. Lame.
"I would write about life. Every person would be exactly as important as any other. All facts would also be given equal weightiness. Nothing would be left out. Let others bring order to chaos. I would bring chaos to order" - Kurt Vonnegut

Thoughtful
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Thoughtful » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:47 pm

DOW took a hit today. That's always my cue to buy shares. I'm hopeful we are more prepared than the last time. We refinanced our house last week at a record low rate. Took years off our loan. I'm considering buying a rental if housing drops dramatically (market is peaking here, our appraisal was very high but lower than many recent sales and we were told they are starting to drop).

I think 2020 election will be a big factor.

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Emower
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Emower » Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:29 pm

Corsair wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:18 am
Red Ryder wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:00 pm
What does everyone think about the economy and chances of a downturn or recession?

I believe the rich and powerful are manipulating market forces before the 2020 election.

The 10+ year bull run can’t last forever!
I really don't like conspiracy theories, but this is one that I would tend to believe. Let's assume you are correct and we can all expect a recession in 2021. What should we be doing in the next year and half to prepare for such a down turn?
Stockpile 50 lb. sacks of wheat in the guest room. This comes with an added bonus of giving you moral superiority over your neighbors, and most members since you are following the counsel of dead prophets.

Thoughtful wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:47 pm
I'm considering buying a rental if housing drops dramatically (market is peaking here, our appraisal was very high but lower than many recent sales and we were told they are starting to drop).
I'm hoping it allows me to buy a house over here.

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Corsair
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Corsair » Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:48 pm

Emower wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:29 pm
Stockpile 50 lb. sacks of wheat in the guest room. This comes with an added bonus of giving you moral superiority over your neighbors, and most members since you are following the counsel of dead prophets.
This is supposed to be funny, but I know far too many people who have this achievement as a major flex in the ward virtue signalling Olympic Games. I have not heard the term "Year Supply" in general conference since about 2007. Only the most devout seem interested in the topic these days.

Thoughtful
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by Thoughtful » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:29 pm

Corsair wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:48 pm
Emower wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:29 pm
Stockpile 50 lb. sacks of wheat in the guest room. This comes with an added bonus of giving you moral superiority over your neighbors, and most members since you are following the counsel of dead prophets.
This is supposed to be funny, but I know far too many people who have this achievement as a major flex in the ward virtue signalling Olympic Games. I have not heard the term "Year Supply" in general conference since about 2007. Only the most devout seem interested in the topic these days.
Well if any of you want wheat, I got you. So much wheat in my basement. I have no idea what to do with it all.

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wtfluff
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Re: Stock Market, economy, and recession?

Post by wtfluff » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:34 pm

Thoughtful wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:29 pm
Well if any of you want wheat, I got you. So much wheat in my basement. I have no idea what to do with it all.
THIS is what is hilarious about the "Years Supply." My confirmation bias tells me that 90% of the mormons out there that have a stock-pile of wheat in their basement have no idea how to use it. Most of them don't even have a grinder do do anything with that "hard red wheat."

I actually saw a post on FaceNeck the other day where a fellow apostate had used some of their "wheat storage" to make a "Mild Barley Drink" (with some wheat as part of the mash bill.) That there apostate is going to be really busy during the zombie apocalypse (as long as they have fire to brew mild barley drinks.) That person is literally one of the ONLY people I "know" who actually knows how to use the BILLIONS of pounds of wheat stored in mormon's basements.
Faith does not give you the answers, it just stops you asking the questions. -Frater Ravus

Keep the company of those who seek the truth - run from those who have found it -Václav Havel

Brilliant.

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